APMAdvances in Precision Medicine2424-85922424-9106Bio-Byword Scientific Publishing Pty. Ltd.10.26689/APM.v11i6.15127ArticleWhen Mild Is Not Benign: Predicting Early Neurological Deterioration in Mild-to-Moderate Acute Ischemic Strokehttps://artdesignp.com/journal/APM/11/6/10.26689/APM.v11i6.15127HuangKaili,HuangYing,ChenZhihui,HuangZhixin20261162026-06-26Introduction: Screening of Factors Influencing Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Mild-to-Moderate Ischemic Stroke, Construction of a Predictive Model, and Evaluation of Its Performance. Methods: Retrospective data of patients with mild to moderate acute ischemic stroke diagnosed in Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital from January 2017 to June 2023 were analyzed. The cohort was divided into the early neurological deterioration (END, with a quantity of 205) group and the non-END group (with a quantity of 929). LASSO regression analysis was used to find key predictive features related to END. A nomogram was constructed using R software, and the prediction performance was evaluated through ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and stability testing was carried out through five - fold cross - validation. Results: A total of 1, 134 patients with mild to moderate acute ischemic stroke were included, among whom 205 experienced early neurological deterioration. LASSO regression identified six independent factors affecting the occurrence of early neurological deterioration: BMI, admission systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, ADL score, ASPECT score, and treatment methods. A dynamic nomogram model was constructed based on these risk factors. ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curves indicated that the model has good predictive performance, and fivefold cross-validation further confirmed that the model is highly robust. Conclusion: We analyzed and identified 6 independent risk factors for END, namely BMI, admission systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, ADL score, ASPECTS score, and treatment methods. The nomogram constructed based on these factors has an acceptable predictive performance in the study population.Acute ischemic stroke,Early neurological deterioration,Nomogram

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