CNRClinical Neuroscience Research3083-48992981-8133Bio-Byword Scientific Publishing Pty. Ltd.10.26689/CNR.v4i3.15701ArticleThe Global, Regional, and National Patterns of Change in the Burden of Skull Fractures from 1990 to 2021 and the Forecast for 2036: A Global Burden of Disease Studyhttps://artdesignp.com/journal/CNR/4/3/10.26689/CNR.v4i3.15701GuYuhang,JiXiaoyu,YangSiyuan,YuZhengquan2026432026-10-19Background: Skull fractures are a significant public health concern worldwide. The study aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for skull fractures from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed and provide crucial information for the development of targeted prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: Data from the Global Health Data 2021 were used to measure the global, regional, and national burden of skull fractures by country, region, age, gender, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Age-period-cohort modeling, the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and joinpoint regression analysis were also carried out. Results: The global prevalence and YLDs of skull fractures increased from 1990 to 2021, marking a 20% and 18% increase. However, the global prevalence and YLDs rates of skull fractures declined from 1990 to 2021, with an EAPC of −1.37 (95% CI: −1.41 to −1.33) and −1.38 (95% CI: −1.42 to −1.34). The global incidence of skull fractures declined from 1990 to 2021, marking a 3% reduction. Skull fracture incidence rates, prevalence rates, and YLDs rates increased, followed by the rise of the SDI value. In 2021, the high SDI regions reported the highest absolute numbers of incident and YLD cases of skull fractures. The age effect across global and SDI regions demonstrates a downward trend with advancing age, except in the 80+ age groups. There were 5 major causes of skull fractures, including falls, road injuries, exposure to mechanical forces, interpersonal violence, and physical violence by other means. Falls were the most important cause of skull fractures. The ARIMA model predicts a global fall in the age-standardized rates (ASR) of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs from 2021 to 2036. Conclusion: Drawing on global epidemiological data, this work investigates trends for skull‑fracture‑related disease burden. While age‑standardized rates (ASR) have fallen, worldwide prevalence and total years lived with disability keep going up. This mismatch between trends implies that one‑size‑fits‑all approaches will not work; local context‑adapted interventions are therefore required to tackle the expanding burden of such injuries. Even so, aggregate population burden from skull fractures is forecast to decline in the coming 15‑year period.Skull fractures, Epidemiology, Global burden of disease, Prevalence

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