PBESProceedings of Business and Economic Studies2209-26412209-265XBio-Byword Scientific Publishing Pty. Ltd.10.26689/PBES.v9i9.15616ArticleFinancial Risk Transmission and Regulatory Policies in the AI Investment Bubble: A Study Based on a Systemic Risk Early-Warning Modelhttps://artdesignp.com/journal/PBES/9/9/10.26689/PBES.v9i9.15616BaoRong2026992026-09-30This paper focuses on the accumulation of financial risks and the optimization of regulation during the expansion cycle of the artificial intelligence industry. Taking the evolution and structural characteristics of global AI investment as its starting point, it examines the intrinsic logic by which capital expansion transmits to financial risks, and constructs an early-warning indicator system covering five dimensions: valuation risk, investment overheating risk, leverage risk, credit risk, and market contagion risk. Using an entropy-weighted method to assign objective weights, the paper synthesizes the AI Financial Risk Index (AI-FRI) and establishes a four-tier risk classification system based on the historical quantile method. Building on this, threshold regression and stress testing methods are combined to calibrate policy intervention thresholds, forming a closed-loop regulatory framework comprising “risk monitoring–threshold triggering–tiered response–effectiveness feedback.” Concurrently, a policy effectiveness evaluation system is established across three dimensions: risk control, transmission efficiency, and policy costs. The study found that the current wave of AI investment is characterized by computing power infrastructure as the dominant driver, with excessive capital concentration, valuations deviating from fundamentals, and rising leverage ratios being the core drivers of risk accumulation; quantitative early warning and tiered prudential regulation can minimize the inhibitory effect on industrial innovation whilst preventing systemic risks. The findings of this paper provide quantitative evidence and a feasible pathway for improving macroprudential regulation in the AI sector.Investment in artificial intelligence, Financial risk, Regulatory policy

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